BOS
54%
@
March 26, 2026
CIN
46%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Garrett Crochet
vs
CIN
Andrew Abbott
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Simulation only | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Elo ratings | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Market (implied) | 58.6% | 41.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.8
CIN avg runs
5.2
Avg total
11.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| CIN | 3.6% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Willson Contreras
- Jarren Duran
- Caleb Durbin
- Andruw Monasterio
- Wilyer Abreu
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
- Carlos Narváez
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Tyler Stephenson
- Noelvi Marte
- Dane Myers
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.33
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 17 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1528
CIN: 1455
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -158 | +134 |
| Bovada | -159 | +133 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |