CLE
42%
@
March 26, 2026
SEA
58%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Tanner Bibee
vs
SEA
Logan Gilbert
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Simulation only | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Elo ratings | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Market (implied) | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
3.4
SEA avg runs
3.8
Avg total
7.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 10.8% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| SEA | 8.7% | 12.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Angel Martínez
- Brayan Rocchio
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Rhys Hoskins
- Gabriel Arias
- CJ Kayfus
- Austin Hedges
- 702693
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Mitch Garver
- Rob Refsnyder
- 656582
- Ryan Bliss
- Leo Rivas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1523
SEA: 1561
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Bovada | +150 | -182 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -193 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |