LAA
43%
@
March 26, 2026
HOU
57%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
José Soriano
vs
HOU
Hunter Brown
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Simulation only | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Elo ratings | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Market (implied) | 38.3% | 61.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.5
HOU avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 6.0% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| HOU | 4.7% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Isaac Paredes
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jake Meyers
- Carlos Correa
- 805904
- Christian Walker
- 624523
- Christian Vázquez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1435
HOU: 1469
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +149 | -181 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |