TBR
40%
@
March 26, 2026
STL
60%
ML
STL ML (+110) — 60% win, +8.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Drew Rasmussen
vs
STL
Matthew Liberatore
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Simulation only | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Elo ratings | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| Market (implied) | 53.5% | 46.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.3
STL avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 6.9% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| STL | 5.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Ryan Vilade
- Nick Fortes
- Ben Williamson
- Jake Fraley
- 669722
- Cedric Mullins
- 669384
- Chandler Simpson
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Masyn Winn
- Alec Burleson
- Thomas Saggese
- Jordan Walker
- Yohel Pozo
- José Fermín
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
90°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1436
STL: 1518
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -126 | +106 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +110 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Matthew Liberatore keeps STL competitive on the mound against Drew Rasmussen. Heat cranks up the offense.