WSN
40%
@
March 26, 2026
CHC
60%
ML
WSN ML (+193) — 40% win, +6.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Cade Cavalli
vs
CHC
Matthew Boyd
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Elo ratings | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Market (implied) | 33.3% | 66.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.1
CHC avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 7.3% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| CHC | 6.0% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Nasim Nuñez
- Jacob Young
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Luis García Jr.
- CJ Abrams
- Keibert Ruiz
- 686611
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Miguel Amaya
- Ian Happ
- Nico Hoerner
- Dansby Swanson
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Matt Shaw
- Michael Conforto
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
41°F
Wind: 15 mph out
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1493
CHC: 1561
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +184 | -220 |
| Bovada | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +189 | -232 |
| Caesars | +192 | -235 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +193 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Cade Cavalli keeps WSN competitive on the mound against Matthew Boyd. Cold temps suppress the bats.