ARI
43%
@
March 26, 2026
LAD
57%
ML
ARI ML (+214) — 43% win, +11.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Zac Gallen
vs
LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Simulation only | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Elo ratings | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Market (implied) | 31.1% | 68.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.5
LAD avg runs
6.1
Avg total
11.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 3.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| LAD | 2.2% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Nolan Arenado
- Gabriel Moreno
- Pavin Smith
- Carlos Santana
- Alek Thomas
- Jordan Lawlar
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.27
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1552
LAD: 1554
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +200 | -245 |
| Bovada | +205 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +209 | -259 |
| Caesars | +210 | -260 |
Model Analysis
The market has ARI as a +214 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Zac Gallen keeps ARI competitive on the mound against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The sim projects ARI to plate 5.5 runs — expect some fireworks.