CWS
36%
@
March 26, 2026
MIL
64%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Shane Smith
vs
MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| Simulation only | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Elo ratings | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| Market (implied) | 37.7% | 62.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.2
MIL avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 7.1% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| MIL | 5.6% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Andrew Benintendi
- Colson Montgomery
- Miguel Vargas
- Munetaka Murakami
- Derek Hill
- Lenyn Sosa
- Edgar Quero
- Tristan Peters
- Luisangel Acuña
MIL
- Jackson Chourio
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Christian Yelich
- Andrew Vaughn
- Jake Bauers
- Sal Frelick
- David Hamilton
- Joey Ortiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1409
MIL: 1546
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +160 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |