DET
47%
@
March 26, 2026
SDP
53%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Tarik Skubal
vs
SDP
Nick Pivetta
Win Probability
| Source | DET | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Simulation only | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Elo ratings | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Market (implied) | 54.7% | 45.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.6
SDP avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.5% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| SDP | 6.5% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Kerry Carpenter
- Gleyber Torres
- Riley Greene
- Colt Keith
- Dillon Dingler
- Kevin McGonigle
- Matt Vierling
- Zach McKinstry
- 690291
SDP
- 687749
- 657077
- Miguel Andujar
- Nick Castellanos
- 669304
- 678010
- 660710
- 677578
- 669392
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
DET: 1505
SDP: 1516
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -135 | +113 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |