MIN
44%
@
March 26, 2026
BAL
56%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Joe Ryan
vs
BAL
Trevor Rogers
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Simulation only | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Elo ratings | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Market (implied) | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
5.0
BAL avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.5% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| BAL | 5.5% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Victor Caratini
- Ryan Jeffers
- Brooks Lee
- Josh Bell
- James Outman
- Tristan Gray
- 693459
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Samuel Basallo
- Pete Alonso
- Tyler O'Neill
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Colton Cowser
- Blaze Alexander
- 682868
- 676679
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.17
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 14 mph out
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1470
BAL: 1527
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |