PIT
50%
@
March 26, 2026
NYM
50%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Paul Skenes
vs
NYM
Freddy Peralta
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Simulation only | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Elo ratings | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Market (implied) | 47.7% | 52.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.9
NYM avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 5.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| NYM | 4.4% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Spencer Horwitz
- Nick Gonzales
- Billy Cook
- Joey Bart
- 675961
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- 665506
- Francisco Alvarez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.08
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
66°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1453
NYM: 1407
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | -103 | -117 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |