TEX
50%
@
March 26, 2026
PHI
50%
ML
TEX ML (+136) — 50% win, +7.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
vs
PHI
Cristopher Sánchez
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Simulation only | 50.4% | 49.5% |
| Elo ratings | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Market (implied) | 41.4% | 58.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.2
PHI avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.0% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| PHI | 4.5% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Ezequiel Duran
- Evan Carter
- Sam Haggerty
- Josh Smith
- 680862
PHI
- Trea Turner
- J.T. Realmuto
- Otto Kemp
- Alec Bohm
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Edmundo Sosa
- 678894
- Dylan Moore
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.2
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
73°F
Wind: 16 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1524
PHI: 1505
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 |
| Bovada | +131 | -157 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has TEX as a +136 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Nathan Eovaldi keeps TEX competitive on the mound against Cristopher Sánchez. The sim projects TEX to plate 5.2 runs — expect some fireworks.