Athletics
44%
@
March 27, 2026
TOR
56%
RL
Athletics +1.5 (-135) — 65% win, +8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Luis Severino
vs
TOR
Kevin Gausman
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market (implied) | 38.7% | 61.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.2
TOR avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| TOR | 3.9% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
TOR
- George Springer
- Nathan Lukes
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Addison Barger
- Alejandro Kirk
- Daulton Varsho
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1503
TOR: 1551
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +144 | -172 |
| Bovada | +147 | -179 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting +1.5 at -135. The sim gives them a 65% chance of covering — 8.2% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.