DET
49%
@
March 27, 2026
SDP
51%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Framber Valdez
vs
SDP
Michael King
Win Probability
| Source | DET | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Simulation only | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Elo ratings | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Market (implied) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.6
SDP avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.1% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| SDP | 4.3% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
DET
- Kerry Carpenter
- Gleyber Torres
- Zach McKinstry
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kevin McGonigle
- Dillon Dingler
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Báez
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Xander Bogaerts
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Miguel Andujar
- Ramón Laureano
- Ty France
- Jake Cronenworth
- Luis Campusano
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
DET: 1545
SDP: 1475
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +107 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |