NYY
56%
@
March 27, 2026
SFG
44%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Cam Schlittler
vs
SFG
Robbie Ray
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Simulation only | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Elo ratings | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| Market (implied) | 54.6% | 45.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
4.7
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 5.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| SFG | 5.3% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
NYY
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Amed Rosario
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Randal Grichuk
- Austin Wells
SFG
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Willy Adames
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Casey Schmitt
- Patrick Bailey
- Harrison Bader
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1604
SFG: 1478
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -134 | +112 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |