ARI
38%
@
March 27, 2026
LAD
62%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Ryne Nelson
vs
LAD
Emmet Sheehan
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Simulation only | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Elo ratings | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Market (implied) | 31.3% | 68.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.3
LAD avg runs
6.1
Avg total
11.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 3.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| LAD | 2.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Nolan Arenado
- Carlos Santana
- Jordan Lawlar
- Alek Thomas
- Tim Tawa
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.28
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1518
LAD: 1588
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +200 | -245 |
| Bovada | +200 | -245 |
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +209 | -259 |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 |