CLE
48%
@
March 27, 2026
SEA
52%
ML
CLE ML (+152) — 48% win, +8.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Gavin Williams
vs
SEA
George Kirby
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Simulation only | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Elo ratings | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Market (implied) | 38.7% | 61.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
3.7
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
7.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 9.7% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| SEA | 7.3% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
- Rhys Hoskins
- CJ Kayfus
- Gabriel Arias
- Brayan Rocchio
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
- Leo Rivas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1567
SEA: 1518
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +152 | -180 |
| Bovada | +144 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Model Analysis
The market has CLE as a +152 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Gavin Williams keeps CLE competitive on the mound against George Kirby. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.