COL
37%
@
March 27, 2026
MIA
63%
RL
COL +1.5 (-130) — 63% win, +7.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
COL
Kyle Freeland
vs
MIA
Sandy Alcantara
Win Probability
| Source | COL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Simulation only | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Elo ratings | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| Market (implied) | 36.6% | 63.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
COL avg runs
4.5
MIA avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = COL wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 5.8% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| MIA | 5.5% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
COL
- Jake McCarthy
- Hunter Goodman
- Willi Castro
- Ezequiel Tovar
- TJ Rumfield
- Jordan Beck
- Brenton Doyle
- Edouard Julien
- Kyle Karros
MIA
- Austin Slater
- Agustín Ramírez
- Jakob Marsee
- Otto Lopez
- Connor Norby
- Heriberto Hernández
- Xavier Edwards
- Owen Caissie
- Javier Sanoja
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
COL: 1399
MIA: 1537
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | COL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 |
| Bovada | +159 | -194 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +163 | -199 |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 |
Model Analysis
COL is getting +1.5 at -130. The sim gives them a 63% chance of covering — 7.6% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.