KCR
44%
@
March 27, 2026
ATL
56%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Cole Ragans
vs
ATL
Chris Sale
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Simulation only | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Elo ratings | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Market (implied) | 42.8% | 57.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
5.0
ATL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 5.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| ATL | 5.1% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Lane Thomas
- Salvador Perez
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Starling Marte
- Jonathan India
- Isaac Collins
- Carter Jensen
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Eli White
- Mauricio Dubón
- Jonah Heim
- Michael Harris II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
79°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1481
ATL: 1533
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |