LAA
49%
@
March 27, 2026
HOU
51%
ML
LAA ML (+140) — 50% win, +8.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Yusei Kikuchi
vs
HOU
Mike Burrows
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Simulation only | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Elo ratings | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Market (implied) | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.6
HOU avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 5.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| HOU | 4.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Jose Altuve
- Carlos Correa
- Cam Smith
- Christian Walker
- Yainer Diaz
- Brice Matthews
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1478
HOU: 1426
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Bovada | +133 | -159 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has LAA as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Yusei Kikuchi keeps LAA competitive on the mound against Mike Burrows.