ARI
38%
@
March 28, 2026
LAD
62%
RL
ARI +1.5 (-105) — 60% win, +9.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
vs
LAD
Tyler Glasnow
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Simulation only | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Elo ratings | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Market (implied) | 31.7% | 68.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.6
LAD avg runs
5.7
Avg total
11.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 3.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| LAD | 2.8% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Pavin Smith
- Nolan Arenado
- Carlos Santana
- Alek Thomas
- Jordan Lawlar
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Miguel Rojas
- Santiago Espinal
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.27
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
75°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1497
LAD: 1609
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +198 | -240 |
| Bovada | +200 | -245 |
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +203 | -252 |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 |
Model Analysis
ARI is getting +1.5 at -105. The sim gives them a 60% chance of covering — 9.4% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.