DET
54%
@
March 28, 2026
SDP
46%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Jack Flaherty
vs
SDP
Randy Vasquez
Win Probability
| Source | DET | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Simulation only | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Elo ratings | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Market (implied) | 50.9% | 49.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.6
SDP avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.4% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| SDP | 4.6% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Kerry Carpenter
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kevin McGonigle
- Dillon Dingler
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Báez
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jake Cronenworth
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Ramón Laureano
- Miguel Andujar
- Freddy Fermin
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
DET: 1570
SDP: 1451
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -111 | -109 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |