KCR
40%
@
March 28, 2026
ATL
60%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Michael Wacha
vs
ATL
Reynaldo Lopez
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| Simulation only | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Elo ratings | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Market (implied) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
5.0
ATL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 4.8% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| ATL | 4.4% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Jac Caglianone
- Jonathan India
- Carter Jensen
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.96
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1459
ATL: 1555
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Bovada | +127 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |