LAA
53%
@
March 28, 2026
HOU
47%
ML
LAA ML (+126) — 53% win, +7.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Reid Detmers
vs
HOU
Cristian Javier
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Simulation only | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Elo ratings | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Market (implied) | 42.8% | 57.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.5
HOU avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 6.2% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| HOU | 5.4% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Jose Altuve
- Carlos Correa
- Cam Smith
- Christian Walker
- Yainer Diaz
- Brice Matthews
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1504
HOU: 1400
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Bovada | +123 | -147 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
LAA is getting plus-money at +126 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Reid Detmers keeps LAA competitive on the mound against Cristian Javier. LAA holds a commanding 104-point Elo edge.