MIN
41%
@
March 28, 2026
BAL
59%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Taj Bradley
vs
BAL
Kyle Bradish
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Simulation only | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Elo ratings | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| Market (implied) | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
5.0
BAL avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| BAL | 5.2% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Josh Bell
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Victor Caratini
- Trevor Larnach
- Ryan Jeffers
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.1
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
44°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1441
BAL: 1555
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Bovada | +140 | -168 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |