TBR
40%
@
March 28, 2026
STL
60%
ML
STL ML (-110) — 60% win, +8.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Joe Boyle
vs
STL
Michael McGreevy
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Simulation only | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Elo ratings | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| Market (implied) | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.8
STL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.3% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| STL | 6.6% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Cedric Mullins
- Junior Caminero
- Jake Fraley
- Richie Palacios
- Chandler Simpson
- Carson Williams
- Hunter Feduccia
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Nolan Gorman
- Ramón Urías
- Nathan Church
- Jordan Walker
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.86
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
55°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1410
STL: 1544
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Bovada | -103 | -117 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Model Analysis
STL is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Michael McGreevy toes the rubber against Joe Boyle. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.