TEX
43%
@
March 28, 2026
PHI
57%
ML
PHI ML (-105) — 57% win, +6.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jacob deGrom
vs
PHI
Aaron Nola
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Simulation only | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Elo ratings | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Market (implied) | 49.8% | 50.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.2
PHI avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| PHI | 3.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Joc Pederson
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- J.T. Realmuto
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
42°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1488
PHI: 1542
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -103 | -117 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Model Analysis
PHI is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Aaron Nola toes the rubber against Jacob deGrom. The sim projects PHI to plate 5.1 runs — expect some fireworks.