Athletics
42%
@
March 28, 2026
TOR
58%
RL
Athletics +1.5 (-130) — 66% win, +9.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Jeffrey Springs
vs
TOR
Dylan Cease
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Simulation only | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Elo ratings | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Market (implied) | 37.0% | 63.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.2
TOR avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.2% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| TOR | 3.7% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
TOR
- George Springer
- Nathan Lukes
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Addison Barger
- Alejandro Kirk
- Daulton Varsho
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1481
TOR: 1574
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Bovada | +161 | -196 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -193 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting +1.5 at -130. The sim gives them a 66% chance of covering — 9.9% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.