BOS
58%
@
March 28, 2026
CIN
42%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Sonny Gray
vs
CIN
Brady Singer
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Simulation only | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Elo ratings | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| Market (implied) | 56.4% | 43.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.5
CIN avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| CIN | 4.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Carlos Narváez
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Eugenio Suárez
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Tyler Stephenson
- Will Benson
- Noelvi Marte
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.25
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 3 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1559
CIN: 1424
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -144 | +122 |
| Bovada | -144 | +121 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |