CLE
44%
@
March 28, 2026
SEA
56%
ML
CLE ML (+158) — 44% win, +6.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Joseph Cantillo
vs
SEA
Bryan Woo
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Simulation only | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Elo ratings | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Market (implied) | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
3.8
SEA avg runs
3.9
Avg total
7.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 8.9% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| SEA | 7.6% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
- Rhys Hoskins
- CJ Kayfus
- Gabriel Arias
- Brayan Rocchio
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Rob Refsnyder
- Ryan Bliss
- Victor Robles
- Leo Rivas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1536
SEA: 1548
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +156 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
The market has CLE as a +158 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Joseph Cantillo keeps CLE competitive on the mound against Bryan Woo. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.