NYY
59%
@
March 28, 2026
SFG
41%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Will Warren
vs
SFG
Tyler Mahle
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Simulation only | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Elo ratings | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| Market (implied) | 53.9% | 46.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.0
SFG avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 4.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| SFG | 5.2% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
- Austin Wells
SFG
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Willy Adames
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Casey Schmitt
- Patrick Bailey
- Harrison Bader
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1624
SFG: 1458
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -126 | +108 |
| Bovada | -131 | +109 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |