PIT
43%
@
March 28, 2026
NYM
57%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Mitch Keller
vs
NYM
David Peterson
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Simulation only | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Elo ratings | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Market (implied) | 38.9% | 61.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.5
NYM avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 6.1% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| NYM | 5.2% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Jared Triolo
- Billy Cook
- Jake Mangum
- Henry Davis
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.02
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
38°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1414
NYM: 1446
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Bovada | +148 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |