WSN
46%
@
March 28, 2026
CHC
54%
RL
WSN +1.5 (-105) — 60% win, +9.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Miles Mikolas
vs
CHC
Cade Horton
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Simulation only | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Elo ratings | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market (implied) | 32.4% | 67.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
3.9
CHC avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 8.2% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| CHC | 5.8% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Andrés Chaparro
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
- Jacob Young
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Matt Shaw
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
47°F
Wind: 11 mph in
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1539
CHC: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +194 | -235 |
| Bovada | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +194 | -240 |
| Caesars | +196 | -240 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at -105. The sim gives them a 60% chance of covering — 9.4% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.