KCR
37%
@
March 29, 2026
ATL
63%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Seth Lugo
vs
ATL
Grant Holmes
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Simulation only | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Elo ratings | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| Market (implied) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
4.6
ATL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 5.2% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| ATL | 5.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Lane Thomas
- Jac Caglianone
- Nick Loftin
- Kyle Isbel
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Dominic Smith
- Jorge Mateo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
63°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1440
ATL: 1574
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |