LAA
47%
@
March 29, 2026
HOU
53%
ML
LAA ML (+154) — 48% win, +8.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Jack Kochanowicz
vs
HOU
Tatsuya Imai
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Simulation only | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Elo ratings | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Market (implied) | 38.2% | 61.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.6
HOU avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 6.0% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| HOU | 4.4% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Carlos Correa
- Joey Loperfido
- Cam Smith
- Christian Walker
- Yainer Diaz
- Jake Meyers
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1469
HOU: 1435
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +145 | -177 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
The market has LAA as a +154 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Jack Kochanowicz keeps LAA competitive on the mound against Tatsuya Imai.