PIT
40%
@
March 29, 2026
NYM
60%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski
vs
NYM
Nolan McLean
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Simulation only | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Elo ratings | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Market (implied) | 37.7% | 62.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.6
NYM avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 6.2% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| NYM | 5.1% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Jared Triolo
- Spencer Horwitz
- Nick Gonzales
- Henry Davis
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Luis Torrens
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
48°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1390
NYM: 1470
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Bovada | +153 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |