WSN
41%
@
March 29, 2026
CHC
59%
RL
WSN +1.5 (+104) — 59% win, +10.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Jake Irvin
vs
CHC
Shota Imanaga
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| Simulation only | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Elo ratings | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Market (implied) | 31.1% | 68.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.0
CHC avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 7.9% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| CHC | 5.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Andrés Chaparro
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
- Jacob Young
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Dansby Swanson
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Matt Shaw
- Miguel Amaya
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
66°F
Wind: 12 mph in
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1511
CHC: 1543
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +205 | -250 |
| Bovada | +205 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +209 | -259 |
| Caesars | +210 | -260 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at +104. The sim gives them a 59% chance of covering — 10.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.