BOS
53%
@
March 29, 2026
CIN
47%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Connelly Early
vs
CIN
Rhett Lowder
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Simulation only | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Elo ratings | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Market (implied) | 55.7% | 44.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.6
CIN avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| CIN | 3.7% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Masataka Yoshida
- Marcelo Mayer
- Connor Wong
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Dane Myers
- Tyler Stephenson
- Noelvi Marte
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.29
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
66°F
Wind: 12 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1522
CIN: 1461
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| Bovada | -142 | +119 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |