COL
33%
@
March 29, 2026
MIA
67%
Pitching Matchup
COL
Jose Quintana
vs
MIA
Max Meyer
Win Probability
| Source | COL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Simulation only | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Elo ratings | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Market (implied) | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
COL avg runs
4.4
MIA avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = COL wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 6.3% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| MIA | 5.8% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
COL
- Jake McCarthy
- Hunter Goodman
- Willi Castro
- Ezequiel Tovar
- TJ Rumfield
- Jordan Beck
- Brenton Doyle
- Brett Sullivan
- Kyle Karros
MIA
- Austin Slater
- Agustín Ramírez
- Jakob Marsee
- Otto Lopez
- Connor Norby
- Heriberto Hernández
- Xavier Edwards
- Deyvison De Los Santos
- Javier Sanoja
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
COL: 1368
MIA: 1567
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | COL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Bovada | +162 | -197 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |