CWS
34%
@
March 29, 2026
MIL
66%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Anthony Kay
vs
MIL
Brandon Sproat
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Simulation only | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Elo ratings | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| Market (implied) | 38.7% | 61.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.2
MIL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 6.9% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| MIL | 6.7% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Colson Montgomery
- Miguel Vargas
- Andrew Benintendi
- Austin Hays
- Munetaka Murakami
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Luisangel Acuña
MIL
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Christian Yelich
- Gary Sánchez
- Luis Rengifo
- Jeferson Quero
- Blake Perkins
- Joey Ortiz
- Brandon Lockridge
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1374
MIL: 1581
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +151 | -183 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |