MIN
45%
@
March 29, 2026
BAL
55%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Bailey Ober
vs
BAL
Shane Baz
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Simulation only | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Elo ratings | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Market (implied) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
5.1
BAL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.5% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| BAL | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
MIN
- Kody Clemens
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Trevor Larnach
- Royce Lewis
- Tristan Gray
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Coby Mayo
- Dylan Beavers
- Jeremiah Jackson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.13
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
57°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1481
BAL: 1516
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |