TBR
38%
@
March 29, 2026
STL
62%
ML
STL ML (+103) — 62% win, +9.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Steven Matz
vs
STL
Dustin May
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Simulation only | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Elo ratings | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Market (implied) | 52.4% | 47.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.9
STL avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.2% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| STL | 6.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Jake Fraley
- Junior Caminero
- Cedric Mullins
- Chandler Simpson
- Carson Williams
- Richie Palacios
- Nick Fortes
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Thomas Saggese
- Ramón Urías
- Jordan Walker
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
72°F
Wind: 12 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1394
STL: 1561
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -123 | +103 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +103 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Dustin May keeps STL competitive on the mound against Steven Matz. Wind blowing in — pitchers' day.