TEX
48%
@
March 29, 2026
PHI
52%
ML
TEX ML (+140) — 48% win, +7.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
vs
PHI
Jesús Luzardo
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Market (implied) | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.2
PHI avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 4.0% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| PHI | 4.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Andrew McCutchen
- Kyle Higashioka
- Josh Jung
- Sam Haggerty
- Ezequiel Duran
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Adolis García
- Edmundo Sosa
- J.T. Realmuto
- Otto Kemp
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.16
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
54°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1523
PHI: 1507
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +138 | -164 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Model Analysis
The market has TEX as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. MacKenzie Gore keeps TEX competitive on the mound against Jesús Luzardo. The sim projects TEX to plate 5.2 runs — expect some fireworks.