BOS
53%
@
March 30, 2026
HOU
47%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Ranger Suarez
vs
HOU
Lance McCullers
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Simulation only | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Elo ratings | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Market (implied) | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.0
HOU avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.7% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| HOU | 5.4% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Jake Meyers
- Brice Matthews
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1511
HOU: 1445
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -119 | -101 |
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |