LAA
39%
@
March 30, 2026
CHC
61%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Ryan Johnson
vs
CHC
Edward Cabrera
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Simulation only | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Elo ratings | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Market (implied) | 36.9% | 63.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.3
CHC avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 6.7% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| CHC | 5.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Matt Shaw
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.94
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1459
CHC: 1531
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 |
| Bovada | +155 | -188 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |