MIN
48%
@
March 30, 2026
KCR
52%
ML
MIN ML (+141) — 48% win, +6.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
vs
KCR
Kris Bubic
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Simulation only | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Elo ratings | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Market (implied) | 40.3% | 59.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
5.2
KCR avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.3% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| KCR | 3.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
MIN
- Austin Martin
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Matt Wallner
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1472
KCR: 1454
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Bovada | +141 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIN as a +141 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Simeon Woods Richardson keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Kris Bubic. The sim projects MIN to plate 5.2 runs — expect some fireworks.