NYY
56%
@
March 30, 2026
SEA
44%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Ryan Weathers
vs
SEA
Luis Castillo
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| Simulation only | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Elo ratings | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
4.3
SEA avg runs
3.9
Avg total
8.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 6.7% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| SEA | 7.6% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
- Austin Wells
SEA
- Rob Refsnyder
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Brendan Donovan
- Victor Robles
- Leo Rivas
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1642
SEA: 1528
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -112 | -108 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |