PIT
43%
@
March 30, 2026
CIN
57%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
vs
CIN
Chase Burns
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Simulation only | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Elo ratings | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| Market (implied) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
5.6
CIN avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 3.6% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| CIN | 3.5% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Jared Triolo
- Spencer Horwitz
- Nick Gonzales
- Henry Davis
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.32
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
75°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1403
CIN: 1472
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +111 | -133 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |