WSN
48%
@
March 30, 2026
PHI
52%
ML
WSN ML (+152) — 48% win, +8.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Foster Griffin
vs
PHI
Taijuan Walker
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Simulation only | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Elo ratings | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Market (implied) | 38.4% | 61.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
5.0
PHI avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 4.5% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| PHI | 4.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Drew Millas
- Luis García Jr.
- Daylen Lile
- Brady House
- Jorbit Vivas
- Nasim Nuñez
- José Tena
- Jacob Young
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Adolis García
- Edmundo Sosa
- J.T. Realmuto
- Otto Kemp
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.19
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1522
PHI: 1497
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +152 | -180 |
| Bovada | +144 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +152 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Foster Griffin keeps WSN competitive on the mound against Taijuan Walker. The sim projects WSN to plate 5.0 runs — expect some fireworks.