Athletics
42%
@
March 30, 2026
ATL
58%
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Jacob Lopez
vs
ATL
Bryce Elder
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Simulation only | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Elo ratings | 32.4% | 67.7% |
| Market (implied) | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.2
ATL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| ATL | 4.9% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Jeff McNeil
- Max Muncy
- Carlos Cortes
- Denzel Clarke
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Eli White
- Mauricio Dubón
- Jonah Heim
- Michael Harris II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.97
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
74°F
Wind: 9 mph in
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1456
ATL: 1560
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +112 | -134 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |