CLE
38%
@
March 30, 2026
LAD
62%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Parker Messick
vs
LAD
Roki Sasaki
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| Simulation only | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Elo ratings | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Market (implied) | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
5.0
LAD avg runs
5.7
Avg total
10.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 4.5% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| LAD | 2.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
- Rhys Hoskins
- Daniel Schneemann
- Gabriel Arias
- Brayan Rocchio
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Santiago Espinal
- Andy Pages
- Miguel Rojas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.27
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1557
LAD: 1627
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +157 | -192 |
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |